The story begins not with climate deniers casting doubt on new science, but with something far more troubling: companies conducting rigorous research, understanding exactly what their products would do to the planet, and then spending decades lying to the public. They treated science as an internal planning tool and then deployed public relations, front groups, and “manufactured doubt” to delay regulation and protect profits.
The Oil Industry’s Own Scientists Saw It Coming
In 1977, a scientist named James Black stood before Exxon’s management committee with an uncomfortable message. According to internal documents later uncovered by investigative journalists, Black told executives that burning fossil fuels was increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, and that continually rising CO2 levels would increase global temperatures by two to three degrees—a projection that is still consistent with today’s scientific consensus. He warned that we had a window of just five to ten years before “hard decisions regarding changes in energy strategies might become critical”.
What happened next is remarkable for its precision. Throughout the late 1970s and 1980s, Exxon assembled what one scientist called “a credible scientific team” to investigate the climate question. They launched ambitious projects, including outfitting a supertanker with custom instruments to measure how oceans absorbed CO2—one of the most pressing scientific questions of the era. A 2023 Harvard study analyzing Exxon’s internal climate projections from 1977 to 2003 found they predicted global warming with what researchers called “shocking skill and accuracy.” Specifically, the company projected 0.20 degrees Centigrade of warming per decade, with a margin of error of just 0.04 degrees—a forecast that has proven largely correct.
Exxon wasn’t alone. Shell produced a confidential 1988 report titled “The Greenhouse Effect” that warned of climate changes “larger than any that have occurred over the last 12,000 years,” including destructive floods and mass migrations. The report revealed Shell had been running an internal climate science program since 1981. In one striking document from 1986, Shell predicted that fossil fuel emissions would cause changes “the greatest in recorded history”.
Even industry groups understood what was coming. In 1980, the American Petroleum Institute (API) invited Stanford scientist John Laurmann to brief oil company representatives at its secret “CO2 and Climate Task Force”. His presentation, now public, warned that continued fossil fuel use would be “barely noticeable” by 2005 but by the 2060s would have “globally catastrophic effects.” That same year, the API called on governments to triple coal production worldwide, publicly insisting there would be no negative consequences.
The Coal Industry Knew Even Earlier
If anything, the coal industry understood the problem first. A 1966 article in the trade publication Mining Congress Journal by James Garvey, president of Bituminous Coal Research Inc., explicitly discussed how continued coal consumption would increase atmospheric temperatures and cause “vast changes in the climates of the earth.” A combustion engineer from Peabody Coal, now the world’s largest coal company, acknowledged in the same publication that the industry was “buying time” before air pollution regulations would force action.
This 1966 evidence is particularly damning because it predates widespread public awareness by decades. The coal industry didn’t stumble into climate denial—they entered it with full knowledge of what they were obscuring.
Major coal interests also had early awareness that carbon emissions posed regulatory and market risks, particularly for coal‑fired electricity, and they participated in joint industry research and strategy discussions about climate change in the 1980s and 1990s. At the same time, coal associations helped create public campaigns such as the Information Council for the Environment (ICE—even then a disturbing acronym), whose internal planning documents explicitly set an objective to “reposition global warming as theory (not fact)” and to target specific demographic groups with tailored doubt‑based messages.
According to a report from the Union of Concerned Scientists, these efforts often relied on “grassroots” fronts, advertising, and even forged constituent letters to legislators to undermine support for climate policy and to counter the conclusions of mainstream climate science, which even the companies’ own experts did not refute.
What They Said Publicly
The contrast between private knowledge and public statements is stark. While Exxon scientists were building sophisticated climate models internally, the company’s public messaging emphasized uncertainty. In a 1997 speech, Exxon CEO Lee Raymond told an audience at the World Petroleum Conference: “Let’s agree there’s a lot we really don’t know about how climate change will change in the 21st century and beyond”. They spread messaging that emphasized uncertainty, framed global warming as just a “theory,” and highlighted supposed flaws in climate models, even as their own scientists were using those models to make precise projections. The company and allied trade associations supported think tanks and advocacy groups such as Citizens For Sound Science, that questioned if human activity was responsible for warming and opposed binding limits on emissions, producing a stark discrepancy between internal scientific knowledge and external communication.
In 1989, Exxon helped create the Global Climate Coalition—despite its environmental sounding name, the organization worked to cast doubt on climate science and block clean energy legislation throughout the 1990s. Electric utilities and coal‑linked organizations joined this coalition to systematically attack climate scientists and lobby to weaken or stall international agreements like the Kyoto Protocol, despite internal recognition that greenhouse gases were driving warming.
Internal API documents from a 1998 meeting reveal an explicit strategy to “ensure that a majority of the American public… recognizes that significant uncertainties exist in climate science”.
In 1991, Shell produced a film, “Climate of Concern,” which stated that human driven—as opposed to greenhouse gas driven—climate change was happening “at a rate faster than at any time since the end of the ice age” and warned of extreme weather, flooding, famine, and climate refugees. They understood the science but tried to shift the blame.
According to a 2013 Drexel University study, between 2003 and 2010 alone, approximately $558 million was distributed to about 100 climate change denial organizations. Greenpeace reports that Exxon alone spent more than $30 million on think tanks promoting climate denial.
The Tobacco Playbook
The parallels to Big Tobacco’s strategy are not coincidental—they’re intentional. Research by the Center for International Environmental Law uncovered more than 100 documents from the Tobacco Industry Archives showing that oil and tobacco companies not only used the same PR firms and research institutes, but often the same individual researchers. The connection goes back to at least the 1950s. A report published in Scientific American suggests the oil and tobacco industries both hired the PR firm Hill & Knowlton Inc. as early as 1956.
A 1969 internal memo from R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company stated plainly: “Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the ‘body of fact’ that exists in the mind of the general public”. This became the template. Create uncertainty. Emphasize what isn’t known rather than what is. Fund research that casts doubt. Attack the credibility of independent scientists. They formed organizations with scientific-sounding names that existed primarily to muddy the waters.
In one particularly brazen example, a 2015 presentation by Cloud Peak Energy executive Richard Reavey titled “Survival Is Victory: Lessons From the Tobacco Wars,” explicitly coached coal executives on how to apply tobacco industry tactics.
What makes the fossil fuel case particularly egregious is the temporal dimension. These weren’t companies caught off-guard by emerging science. They funded the research. They understood the findings. Their own scientists urged action. A 1978 Exxon memo noted this could be “the kind of opportunity we are looking for to have Exxon technology, management and leadership resources put into the context of a project aimed at benefitting mankind”.
Instead, when oil prices collapsed in the mid-1980s, Exxon pivoted from conducting climate research to funding climate denial. By the late 1980s, according to reporting by InsideClimate News, Exxon “curtailed its carbon dioxide research” and “worked instead at the forefront of climate denial”.
Where We Stand Now
Across the oil, gas, and coal industries, there is not a genuine scientific dispute inside companies but a divergence between what in‑house experts knew and what corporate leaders chose to communicate to the public and policymakers. This divergence mirrors the tobacco industry’s long‑running use of organized doubt. In both arenas, industry actors treated early recognition of harm as a legal and political threat and responded by investing in campaigns to confuse, delay, and reframe the science rather than addressing the risks their own research had identified.
The evidence trail has led to legal action. More than 20 cities, counties, and states have filed lawsuits against fossil fuel companies for damages caused by climate change, arguing the industry knowingly deceived the public. The European Parliament held hearings in 2019 on climate denial by ExxonMobil and other actors. The hashtags #ExxonKnew, #ShellKnew, and #TotalKnew have become rallying cries for accountability.
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse has explicitly compared the fossil fuel industry’s actions to the tobacco racketeering case that ultimately held cigarette makers accountable. As he noted in a Senate speech, the elements of a civil racketeering case are straightforward: defendants conducted an enterprise with a pattern of racketeering activity.
The difference between the tobacco and fossil fuel cases may be one of scale. As researchers Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway documented in their book Merchants of Doubt, both industries worked to obscure truth for profit. But while tobacco kills individuals, climate change threatens entire ecosystems and future generations. The time to act is now.
Sources:
Scientific American – “Exxon Knew about Climate Change Almost 40 Years Ago” https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/exxon-knew-about-climate-change-almost-40-years-ago/
InsideClimate News – Exxon’s Own Research Confirmed Fossil Fuels’ Role in Global Warming Decades Ago https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02052024/from-the-archive-exxon-research-global-warming/
PBS Frontline – Investigation Finds Exxon Ignored Its Own Early Climate Change Warnings https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/investigation-finds-exxon-ignored-its-own-early-climate-change-warnings/
NPR – Exxon climate predictions were accurate decades ago. Still it sowed doubt https://www.npr.org/2023/01/12/1148376084/exxon-climate-predictions-were-accurate-decades-ago-still-it-sowed-doubt
Science (journal) – Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk0063
Climate Investigations Center – Shell Climate Documents https://climateinvestigations.org/shell-oil-climate-documents/
The Conversation – What Big Oil knew about climate change, in its own words https://theconversation.com/what-big-oil-knew-about-climate-change-in-its-own-words-170642
ScienceAlert – The Coal Industry Was Well Aware of Climate Change Predictions Over 50 Years Ago https://www.sciencealert.com/coal-industry-knew-about-climate-change-in-the-60s-damning-revelations-show
The Intercept – A Major Coal Company Went Bust. Its Bankruptcy Filing Shows That It Was Funding Climate Change Denialism https://theintercept.com/2019/05/16/coal-industry-climate-change-denial-cloud-peak-energy/
Center for International Environmental Law – Big Oil Denial Playbook Revealed by New Documents https://www.ciel.org/news/oil-tobacco-denial-playbook/
Wikipedia – Tobacco industry playbook https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tobacco_industry_playbook
Scientific American – Tobacco and Oil Industries Used Same Researchers to Sway Public https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/tobacco-and-oil-industries-used-same-researchers-to-sway-public1/
Environmental Health (journal) – The science of spin: targeted strategies to manufacture doubt with detrimental effects on environmental and public health https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12940-021-00723-0
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse – Time to Wake Up: Climate Denial Recalls Tobacco Racketeering https://www.whitehouse.senate.gov/news/speeches/time-to-wake-up-climate-denial-recalls-tobacco-racketeering/
VICE News – Meet the ‘Merchants of Doubt’ Who Sow Confusion about Tobacco Smoke and Climate Change https://www.vice.com/en/article/meet-the-merchants-of-doubt-who-sow-confusion-about-tobacco-smoke-and-climate-change/
Union of Concerned Scientists – The Climate Deception Dossiers https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/07/The-Climate-Deception-Dossiers.pdf
While I would never call myself a scientist, as a physician my whole professional life is built on the belief in and the trust of science. I am distressed that so many people have chosen to disregard trust in science in favor of misinformation.
Throughout history, scientific discovery has been humanity’s most reliable guide to progress. From the germ theory of disease to space exploration, science has reshaped how we live and what we believe possible. Yet in recent years, the very foundation of this methodical pursuit—evidence, observation, and experimentation—has come under sustained political, cultural, and economic attack. This struggle is often described as “the war on science,” a phrase that captures how debates once rooted in policy have shifted into battles over truth itself.
The numbers tell a stark story. The National Science Foundation has terminated roughly 1,040 grants that would have awarded $739 million to researchers and has awarded only 52 undergraduate research grants in 2025, compared to about 200 annually since 2015. The proposed cuts are staggering. Trump will request a $4 billion budget for the NSF in fiscal year 2026, a 55% reduction from what Congress appropriated for 2025.
At the heart of the conflict lies mistrust. Science requires patience since answers evolve as new data emerge. But in a world driven by instant communication and ideological certainties, that evolving nature is often cast as contradiction or weakness. Critics dismiss changing conclusions not as hallmarks of rigorous inquiry, but as evidence of unreliability. The result is a dangerous fracture; science depends on trust in evidence, while many segments of society increasingly place trust in ideology or anecdote or even outright falsehoods.
Climate change is one of the most visible fronts in this battle. Virtually every major scientific body worldwide affirms that human activities are driving global warming. Yet climate scientists are routinely accused of bias or conspiracy, their data questioned, and their motives impugned. What is often overlooked in the controversy is not the complexity of climate systems—scientists have long acknowledged uncertainties—but the political and economic interests threatened by the solutions science prescribes. When climate scientists publish evidence of global warming, their research doesn’t just describe weather patterns—it challenges powerful industries built on fossil fuels.
Public health provides another stark example. During the COVID-19 pandemic, scientific guidance became subject to fierce political polarization. Masking policies, vaccine safety, and even simple social distancing rules morphed into partisan symbols rather than matters of medical evidence. Scientists found themselves vilified, their professional debates distorted into talking points. The losers in this exchange were not the scientists themselves but the broader public, denied clear trust in institutions that are dedicated to safeguarding health.
Underlying these conflicts are powerful currents. Some industries resist regulation by casting doubt on findings that threaten profit. Certain political movements thrive on skepticism of expertise, channeling populist distrust of “elites” toward scientists. And in the swirl of social media, misinformation spreads more rapidly than peer-reviewed studies, eroding the influence of evidence before consensus can take hold.
What makes this particularly concerning is the timing. America’s main scientific and technological rivals are rising fast. In terms of federal Research and Development funding as a percentage of GDP, U.S. investment has dropped for decades, and the lead that the U.S. enjoyed over China’s R&D expenditure has largely been erased.
While the war on science is often treated as a distinctly modern dilemma, born of political polarization, mass media, and cultural distrust of expertise, its roots stretch back centuries. Galileo was silenced for challenging religious dogma. Early physicians were scorned when they argued that invisible germs, not miasmas or curses, caused disease. During the Enlightenment of the 17th and 18th centuries, thinkers faced their own version of this struggle—a battle between dogma and reason, authority and evidence, tradition and discovery. In every case, vested interests—whether theological, cultural, or economic—feared the disruption that scientific truth carried. Understanding those earlier conflicts provides valuable context for our challenges today.
The stakes today, however, feel higher. Our era’s challenges—climate change, pandemics, artificial intelligence, genetic engineering—demand unprecedented reliance on scientific understanding. To wage war on science is, in effect, to wage war on our own best chance for survival and responsible progress. If truth becomes negotiable, then evidence loses meaning, and with it, the possibility of reasoned self-government. That is why the war on science cannot be dismissed as a technical squabble—it is a philosophical contest echoing the Enlightenment battles that shaped modern civilization.
Ultimately, the struggle is less about data than about values. Do we commit to curiosity, openness, and the willingness to change our minds? Or do we cling to certainties that soothe but endanger us in the end? The war on science will not be won by scientists alone. It can only be resolved if society restores trust in evidence as the most reliable compass we have—however unsettling the direction it may point. There may be alternative opinions but there are no alternative facts.
Climate change, one of the most critical challenges facing humanity in the 21st century, seems to be forgotten in all the controversy surrounding DOGE. Regardless of everything else going on, we can’t ignore climate change because it affects global temperatures, weather patterns, ecosystems, and economies. The overwhelming scientific consensus is that human activities—primarily the burning of fossil fuels—are driving climate change.
The existence of climate change and the impact of human activity, like any other field of science, includes areas of disagreement among researchers. One of the principal areas of disagreement is about the sensitivity of the climate to the increase in CO2 production and the rate at which global warming will occur. There’s also discussion about how effective climate models may be with some arguing that the models may either overestimate or underestimate certain effects. A significant area of disagreement is over what is known as the “tipping points”. This is a debate about when or if certain events such as ice sheet collapse, permafrost thaw or ocean circulation changes might occur. Some argue these events could trigger rapid self-reinforcing climate shifts while others believe changes will be more gradual. Even with this disagreement there is broad acceptance that climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of heat waves, heavy rain and extreme weather.
As intense as some of these scientific debates maybe, they pale in significance beside the political debates being generated around climate change.
When the possibility of climate change was first recognized in the 1970s and 1980s there was bipartisan support to address possible remediation of long-term impacts. Republican President Richard Nixon signed landmark environmental laws including the Clean Air Act.
During the 1990s climate change became more polarized. President George H. W. Bush begin to frame climate change policy as an economic threat. George W. Bush rejected the Kyoto Protocol to avoid “economic hindrance”.
By 2008 the partisan divide had significantly increased. Republicans increasingly dismissed climate risks while Democrats amplified the urgency of taking action. By 2023, 78% of Democrats prioritized climate policy, but only 21% of Republicans viewed climate action as urgent despite increasing climate risks in some GOP dominated states such as Florida and Texas.
The partisan gap expanded as conservative science skeptics continued to raise issues about rates of change, economic impacts and potential solutions. These conservatives tend to view climate policies as government overreach, while progressives hold the position that the government led initiatives are essential to combat environmental threats.
As they have in many other issues, the media have lined up into conservative and progressive camps. The conservative leaning media downplays climate risks while the liberal leaning media emphasizes the danger and need for urgent action. As with many other things this leads to a “echo chamber” effect simply reinforcing political beliefs without adding anything new of significance to the debate.
The Trump administration has signaled its desire to undo many of the climate change initiatives put in place by Democratic administrations. On January 20, 2025, President Trump signed Executive Order 14162 directing the immediate withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Climate Agreements and related international climate commitments. He has declared a “National Energy Emergency” to accelerate fossil fuel development and ease restrictions on the construction of new oil and gas projects. As part of this effort, he has weakened environmental reviews. This is expected to significantly increase fossil fuel consumption and associated greenhouse gas emissions. The Trump administration has begun the rollback of environmental regulations. Lobbyists for the oil, gas and chemical industries have been appointed to the Environmental Protection Agency to reverse climate regulations and pollution controls.
The administration is withdrawing funding for clean energy initiatives including those aimed at reducing carbon emissions and promoting renewable energy resources. The administration has initiated a review of the “legality and continued applicability” of the EPA’s endangerment finding which is the basis of most federal regulations on greenhouse gas. The administration rolled back regulations limiting methane emissions from oil and gas operations. The definition of “waters of the United States” under the Clean Water Act was narrowed, potentially allowing increased pollution in streams and wetlands.
We can expect increases in severe weather because of Trump’s environmental policies. These policy decisions collectively hinder efforts to mitigate climate change, potentially leading to increased greenhouse emissions and global warming. Reduction in funding for climate change research and the rollback of environmental regulations will have long term adverse effects on both domestic and global environmental health.
Significant budget cuts and layoffs within agencies like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) could impair the ability to forecast and respond to severe weather events. For instance, the reduction of meteorologists and environmental scientists may hinder critical forecasting services, affecting public safety during events like hurricanes, tornados and floods.
The U.S. withdrawal from international climate initiatives, such as the Loss and Damage Fund, reduces financial support for developing countries dealing with climate-induced disasters. This could lead to inadequate infrastructure and preparedness in vulnerable regions, potentially increasing the severity of weather-related impacts.
While it is challenging to attribute specific future weather events to current policy changes directly, the administration’s environmental policies will likely contribute to conditions that favor more frequent and intense extreme weather events. The combination of increased greenhouse gas emissions together with weakened environmental regulations, reduced climate research capabilities, and diminished global climate cooperation collectively enhance the likelihood and impact of severe weather phenomena. This damage to our environment needs to be prevented! Once it occurs it will be difficult to ever reverse and our children and grandchildren will suffer as a result.
When They Knew: How the Fossil Fuel Industry Buried Its Own Climate Science
By John Turley
On February 9, 2026
In Commentary, Politics
The story begins not with climate deniers casting doubt on new science, but with something far more troubling: companies conducting rigorous research, understanding exactly what their products would do to the planet, and then spending decades lying to the public. They treated science as an internal planning tool and then deployed public relations, front groups, and “manufactured doubt” to delay regulation and protect profits.
The Oil Industry’s Own Scientists Saw It Coming
In 1977, a scientist named James Black stood before Exxon’s management committee with an uncomfortable message. According to internal documents later uncovered by investigative journalists, Black told executives that burning fossil fuels was increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, and that continually rising CO2 levels would increase global temperatures by two to three degrees—a projection that is still consistent with today’s scientific consensus. He warned that we had a window of just five to ten years before “hard decisions regarding changes in energy strategies might become critical”.
What happened next is remarkable for its precision. Throughout the late 1970s and 1980s, Exxon assembled what one scientist called “a credible scientific team” to investigate the climate question. They launched ambitious projects, including outfitting a supertanker with custom instruments to measure how oceans absorbed CO2—one of the most pressing scientific questions of the era. A 2023 Harvard study analyzing Exxon’s internal climate projections from 1977 to 2003 found they predicted global warming with what researchers called “shocking skill and accuracy.” Specifically, the company projected 0.20 degrees Centigrade of warming per decade, with a margin of error of just 0.04 degrees—a forecast that has proven largely correct.
Exxon wasn’t alone. Shell produced a confidential 1988 report titled “The Greenhouse Effect” that warned of climate changes “larger than any that have occurred over the last 12,000 years,” including destructive floods and mass migrations. The report revealed Shell had been running an internal climate science program since 1981. In one striking document from 1986, Shell predicted that fossil fuel emissions would cause changes “the greatest in recorded history”.
Even industry groups understood what was coming. In 1980, the American Petroleum Institute (API) invited Stanford scientist John Laurmann to brief oil company representatives at its secret “CO2 and Climate Task Force”. His presentation, now public, warned that continued fossil fuel use would be “barely noticeable” by 2005 but by the 2060s would have “globally catastrophic effects.” That same year, the API called on governments to triple coal production worldwide, publicly insisting there would be no negative consequences.
The Coal Industry Knew Even Earlier
If anything, the coal industry understood the problem first. A 1966 article in the trade publication Mining Congress Journal by James Garvey, president of Bituminous Coal Research Inc., explicitly discussed how continued coal consumption would increase atmospheric temperatures and cause “vast changes in the climates of the earth.” A combustion engineer from Peabody Coal, now the world’s largest coal company, acknowledged in the same publication that the industry was “buying time” before air pollution regulations would force action.
This 1966 evidence is particularly damning because it predates widespread public awareness by decades. The coal industry didn’t stumble into climate denial—they entered it with full knowledge of what they were obscuring.
Major coal interests also had early awareness that carbon emissions posed regulatory and market risks, particularly for coal‑fired electricity, and they participated in joint industry research and strategy discussions about climate change in the 1980s and 1990s. At the same time, coal associations helped create public campaigns such as the Information Council for the Environment (ICE—even then a disturbing acronym), whose internal planning documents explicitly set an objective to “reposition global warming as theory (not fact)” and to target specific demographic groups with tailored doubt‑based messages.
According to a report from the Union of Concerned Scientists, these efforts often relied on “grassroots” fronts, advertising, and even forged constituent letters to legislators to undermine support for climate policy and to counter the conclusions of mainstream climate science, which even the companies’ own experts did not refute.
What They Said Publicly
The contrast between private knowledge and public statements is stark. While Exxon scientists were building sophisticated climate models internally, the company’s public messaging emphasized uncertainty. In a 1997 speech, Exxon CEO Lee Raymond told an audience at the World Petroleum Conference: “Let’s agree there’s a lot we really don’t know about how climate change will change in the 21st century and beyond”. They spread messaging that emphasized uncertainty, framed global warming as just a “theory,” and highlighted supposed flaws in climate models, even as their own scientists were using those models to make precise projections. The company and allied trade associations supported think tanks and advocacy groups such as Citizens For Sound Science, that questioned if human activity was responsible for warming and opposed binding limits on emissions, producing a stark discrepancy between internal scientific knowledge and external communication.
In 1989, Exxon helped create the Global Climate Coalition—despite its environmental sounding name, the organization worked to cast doubt on climate science and block clean energy legislation throughout the 1990s. Electric utilities and coal‑linked organizations joined this coalition to systematically attack climate scientists and lobby to weaken or stall international agreements like the Kyoto Protocol, despite internal recognition that greenhouse gases were driving warming.
Internal API documents from a 1998 meeting reveal an explicit strategy to “ensure that a majority of the American public… recognizes that significant uncertainties exist in climate science”.
In 1991, Shell produced a film, “Climate of Concern,” which stated that human driven—as opposed to greenhouse gas driven—climate change was happening “at a rate faster than at any time since the end of the ice age” and warned of extreme weather, flooding, famine, and climate refugees. They understood the science but tried to shift the blame.
According to a 2013 Drexel University study, between 2003 and 2010 alone, approximately $558 million was distributed to about 100 climate change denial organizations. Greenpeace reports that Exxon alone spent more than $30 million on think tanks promoting climate denial.
The Tobacco Playbook
The parallels to Big Tobacco’s strategy are not coincidental—they’re intentional. Research by the Center for International Environmental Law uncovered more than 100 documents from the Tobacco Industry Archives showing that oil and tobacco companies not only used the same PR firms and research institutes, but often the same individual researchers. The connection goes back to at least the 1950s. A report published in Scientific American suggests the oil and tobacco industries both hired the PR firm Hill & Knowlton Inc. as early as 1956.
A 1969 internal memo from R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company stated plainly: “Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the ‘body of fact’ that exists in the mind of the general public”. This became the template. Create uncertainty. Emphasize what isn’t known rather than what is. Fund research that casts doubt. Attack the credibility of independent scientists. They formed organizations with scientific-sounding names that existed primarily to muddy the waters.
In one particularly brazen example, a 2015 presentation by Cloud Peak Energy executive Richard Reavey titled “Survival Is Victory: Lessons From the Tobacco Wars,” explicitly coached coal executives on how to apply tobacco industry tactics.
What makes the fossil fuel case particularly egregious is the temporal dimension. These weren’t companies caught off-guard by emerging science. They funded the research. They understood the findings. Their own scientists urged action. A 1978 Exxon memo noted this could be “the kind of opportunity we are looking for to have Exxon technology, management and leadership resources put into the context of a project aimed at benefitting mankind”.
Instead, when oil prices collapsed in the mid-1980s, Exxon pivoted from conducting climate research to funding climate denial. By the late 1980s, according to reporting by InsideClimate News, Exxon “curtailed its carbon dioxide research” and “worked instead at the forefront of climate denial”.
Where We Stand Now
Across the oil, gas, and coal industries, there is not a genuine scientific dispute inside companies but a divergence between what in‑house experts knew and what corporate leaders chose to communicate to the public and policymakers. This divergence mirrors the tobacco industry’s long‑running use of organized doubt. In both arenas, industry actors treated early recognition of harm as a legal and political threat and responded by investing in campaigns to confuse, delay, and reframe the science rather than addressing the risks their own research had identified.
The evidence trail has led to legal action. More than 20 cities, counties, and states have filed lawsuits against fossil fuel companies for damages caused by climate change, arguing the industry knowingly deceived the public. The European Parliament held hearings in 2019 on climate denial by ExxonMobil and other actors. The hashtags #ExxonKnew, #ShellKnew, and #TotalKnew have become rallying cries for accountability.
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse has explicitly compared the fossil fuel industry’s actions to the tobacco racketeering case that ultimately held cigarette makers accountable. As he noted in a Senate speech, the elements of a civil racketeering case are straightforward: defendants conducted an enterprise with a pattern of racketeering activity.
The difference between the tobacco and fossil fuel cases may be one of scale. As researchers Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway documented in their book Merchants of Doubt, both industries worked to obscure truth for profit. But while tobacco kills individuals, climate change threatens entire ecosystems and future generations. The time to act is now.
Sources:
Scientific American – “Exxon Knew about Climate Change Almost 40 Years Ago”
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/exxon-knew-about-climate-change-almost-40-years-ago/
Harvard Gazette – Harvard-led analysis finds ExxonMobil internal research accurately predicted climate change
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2023/01/harvard-led-analysis-finds-exxonmobil-internal-research-accurately-predicted-climate-change/
InsideClimate News – Exxon’s Own Research Confirmed Fossil Fuels’ Role in Global Warming Decades Ago
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02052024/from-the-archive-exxon-research-global-warming/
PBS Frontline – Investigation Finds Exxon Ignored Its Own Early Climate Change Warnings
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/investigation-finds-exxon-ignored-its-own-early-climate-change-warnings/
NPR – Exxon climate predictions were accurate decades ago. Still it sowed doubt
https://www.npr.org/2023/01/12/1148376084/exxon-climate-predictions-were-accurate-decades-ago-still-it-sowed-doubt
Science (journal) – Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk0063
Climate Investigations Center – Shell Climate Documents
https://climateinvestigations.org/shell-oil-climate-documents/
The Conversation – What Big Oil knew about climate change, in its own words
https://theconversation.com/what-big-oil-knew-about-climate-change-in-its-own-words-170642
ScienceAlert – The Coal Industry Was Well Aware of Climate Change Predictions Over 50 Years Ago
https://www.sciencealert.com/coal-industry-knew-about-climate-change-in-the-60s-damning-revelations-show
The Intercept – A Major Coal Company Went Bust. Its Bankruptcy Filing Shows That It Was Funding Climate Change Denialism
https://theintercept.com/2019/05/16/coal-industry-climate-change-denial-cloud-peak-energy/
Center for International Environmental Law – Big Oil Denial Playbook Revealed by New Documents
https://www.ciel.org/news/oil-tobacco-denial-playbook/
Wikipedia – Tobacco industry playbook
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tobacco_industry_playbook
Scientific American – Tobacco and Oil Industries Used Same Researchers to Sway Public
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/tobacco-and-oil-industries-used-same-researchers-to-sway-public1/
Environmental Health (journal) – The science of spin: targeted strategies to manufacture doubt with detrimental effects on environmental and public health
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12940-021-00723-0
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse – Time to Wake Up: Climate Denial Recalls Tobacco Racketeering
https://www.whitehouse.senate.gov/news/speeches/time-to-wake-up-climate-denial-recalls-tobacco-racketeering/
VICE News – Meet the ‘Merchants of Doubt’ Who Sow Confusion about Tobacco Smoke and Climate Change
https://www.vice.com/en/article/meet-the-merchants-of-doubt-who-sow-confusion-about-tobacco-smoke-and-climate-change/
Union of Concerned Scientists – The Climate Deception Dossiers
https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/07/The-Climate-Deception-Dossiers.pdf
Illustration generated by author using ChatGPT.