If you’ve ever wondered what separates elite endurance athletes from weekend warriors—or why your friend can cruise up hills while you’re gasping for air—the answer often comes down to a vital sign you’ve probably never heard of — VO2 max. Think of it as your cardiovascular system’s horsepower rating, a number that tells you how efficiently your body can use oxygen during intense exercise.
What VO2 Max Actually Means
VO2 max stands for maximal oxygen consumption; it measures the maximum amount of oxygen your body can take in, transport, and use during exercise. Scientists express it in milliliters of oxygen per kilogram of body weight per minute (ml/kg/min). When you’re working out at your absolute limit—say, sprinting up a hill until you simply can’t go any faster—your muscles are burning through oxygen to produce energy. VO2 max represents the ceiling of that process, the point where your body has maxed out its oxygen delivery system and can’t use any more oxygen even if you try to push harder.
An average sedentary man might have a VO2 max around 30-40 ml/kg/min, while an average woman might measure 25-30 ml/kg/min. Elite endurance athletes, however, occupy an entirely different universe. Cross-country skiers and distance runners can reach values of 70-85 ml/kg/min or even higher. The legendary Norwegian cyclist Oskar Svendsen reportedly recorded a VO2 max of 97.5 ml/kg/min, which is probably the upper reaches of human cardiovascular capacity.
The rest of us are also affected by VO2 Max. In later life, it is closely tied to our everyday activities. There’s a minimum aerobic capacity required for independent living—walking briskly, climbing stairs, carrying groceries. As VO2 max declines to that functional threshold, small losses can translate into disproportionate declines in independence. Conversely, modest improvements can produce meaningful gains in stamina, balance, and confidence.
The Gold Standard of Measurement
The most accurate way to measure VO2 max involves what’s called a graded exercise test, typically performed in a lab or clinical setting. You’ll hop on a treadmill or stationary bike while wearing a mask connected to a metabolic cart—essentially a sophisticated machine that analyzes every breath you take. The test starts easy but gets progressively harder every few minutes. The technician increases either the speed, incline, or resistance while the equipment measures exactly how much oxygen you’re consuming and how much carbon dioxide you’re producing.
You keep going until you reach exhaustion—the point where you literally cannot continue despite maximum effort. The highest oxygen consumption rate recorded during this test is your VO2 max. It’s not a particularly pleasant experience, but it’s incredibly accurate. The test also provides valuable data about your anaerobic threshold, the point where your body starts relying more heavily on systems that don’t require oxygen and where lactic acid begins accumulating in your muscles.
For those of us without access to exercise labs, there are several field tests we can use to estimate VO2 max reasonably well. The Cooper test, developed by Dr. Kenneth Cooper in the 1960s, involves running as far as you can in 12 minutes on a track (that wouldn’t be too far for me). The distance you cover correlates with your VO2 max through established formulas [VO2max: (distance covered in meters – 504.9) / 44.73 = VO2 max in ml/kg/min]. Age and gender normed values can be found on a number of fitness websites. Many fitness watches and apps now offer VO2 max estimates based on heart rate data during runs, though these are less precise than laboratory testing.
Why This Number Matters
VO2 max serves as one of our strongest predictors of cardiovascular health and longevity. Research published in major medical journals has consistently shown that higher VO2 max values correlate with lower risks of heart disease, diabetes, and all-cause mortality. A 2018 study in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) that followed over 122,000 patients found that cardiorespiratory fitness (measured by VO2 max) was a better predictor of mortality than traditional risk factors like hypertension, diabetes, or even smoking.
The relationship is striking, for every 3.5 ml/kg/min increase in VO2 max, mortality risk drops by about 13 percent. People in the lowest fitness category (those with the poorest VO2 max scores) have death rates two to three times higher than those in the highest fitness category, even when controlling for other health factors.
Beyond mortality statistics, VO2 max influences your daily quality of life. A higher VO2 max means your heart doesn’t have to work as hard during routine activities. Climbing stairs, carrying groceries, playing with kids or grandkids—all these activities demand less relative effort when your cardiovascular system operates efficiently. Your body becomes better at delivering oxygen-rich blood to working muscles and clearing away metabolic waste products, which means you fatigue less easily and recover more quickly.
The Path to Improvement
The encouraging news is that VO2 max responds remarkably well to training, especially if you’re starting from a sedentary baseline. You can’t completely escape genetics—some people are simply born with larger hearts, more efficient lungs, or a higher percentage of slow-twitch muscle fibers—but training can typically improve VO2 max by 15-30 percent in previously untrained people.
The most effective approach combines several training methods. High-intensity interval training (HIIT) has emerged as particularly powerful tool for boosting VO2 max. These workouts involve short bursts of near-maximal effort followed by recovery periods. A classic protocol might involve running hard for four minutes at about 90-95 percent of your maximum heart rate, then recovering with light jogging for three minutes, repeated four or five times. Studies show that just two or three HIIT sessions per week can produce significant improvements in VO2 max within eight to twelve weeks.
Longer, steady-state aerobic exercise also plays a crucial role. These sessions—think longer runs at a conversational pace—improve your cardiovascular system’s efficiency and build the capillary networks that deliver oxygen to muscles. The optimal training program typically includes both high-intensity intervals and longer moderate-intensity sessions, along with adequate recovery time.
Interestingly, resistance training can indirectly support VO2 max improvements as well. While lifting weights won’t directly boost your oxygen consumption capacity the way running does, it helps maintain lean muscle mass, improves movement efficiency, and can enhance your ability to perform high-intensity cardiovascular work.
This high intensity training is all well and good for young, relatively healthy people. But what about older folks, particularly those with underlying medical problems?
The encouraging news: VO2 max responds to training well into our 70s, 80s, and beyond. Key approaches involve the same elements but tailored to age and medical history.
Moderate-intensity aerobic exercise (brisk walking, cycling, swimming) performed most days of the week is the primary element. Individually adjusted interval training, including carefully supervised higher intensity intervals, have shown impressive VO2 max gains even in older populations. Strength training is beneficial for older folks as well, and as an added benefit, it helps maintain and even improve bone density. A personal trainer can help design your fitness program to maximize improvement while minimizing the likelihood of injury.
Stop any exercise immediately if you experience chest pain, dizziness, or extreme shortness of breath. Remember consistency matters more than intensity alone and, most importantly, never start any exercise program without checking with your doctor first.
The Inevitable Decline
Here’s the less cheerful part: VO2 max naturally declines with age, typically dropping about 10 percent per decade after age 30 in sedentary people. This decline accelerates after age 70. However—and this is crucial—regular exercise dramatically slows this process. Senior athletes who maintain consistent training can preserve VO2 max values that rival or exceed those of sedentary people decades younger. A fit 60-year-old can easily have a higher VO2 max than an inactive 40-year-old.
The decline happens for several reasons: maximum heart rate decreases, cardiac output drops, muscle mass decreases, and the body becomes less efficient at extracting oxygen from blood. But none of these changes are inevitable consequences of aging alone—they’re heavily influenced by activity levels.
Putting It in Perspective
While VO2 max provides valuable information about cardiovascular fitness, it’s worth remembering that it’s just one metric among many. You don’t need the VO2 max of an Olympic athlete to be healthy and enjoy an active life (thankfully). A moderate VO2 max maintained consistently into your later years will serve you far better than a high value in your twenties followed by decades of inactivity.
The real value of understanding VO2 max lies in what it represents: your body’s fundamental capacity to generate energy and support movement. When you work to improve this capacity through regular cardiovascular exercise, you’re investing in both your current quality of life and your long-term health prospects. Every little bit helps—so put down the remote, get up off the couch and start walking. You’ll be glad you did.
Sources:
- American College of Sports Medicine on VO2 max testing: https://www.acsm.org/
- Mayo Clinic on cardiorespiratory fitness: https://www.mayoclinic.org/
- National Institutes of Health research on fitness and mortality: https://www.nih.gov/
- JAMA Network 2018 study on cardiorespiratory fitness and mortality: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2707428
Image generated by author using ChatGPT
The Price Tag Mystery: Why Nobody Really Knows What Healthcare Costs in America
By John Turley
On January 29, 2026
In Commentary, Medicine, Politics
Imagine walking into a store where nothing has a price tag. When you get to the register, the cashier scans your items and tells you the total—but that total is different for every customer. Your neighbor might pay $50 for the same items that cost you $200. The store won’t tell you why, and you won’t find out until after you’ve already “bought” everything.
Welcome to American healthcare, where the simple question “how much does this cost?” has no simple answer.
You might think I’m exaggerating, but the evidence suggests otherwise. Research published in late 2023 by PatientRightsAdvocate.org found that prices for the same medical procedure can vary by more than 10 times within a single hospital depending on which insurance plan you have, and by as much as 33 times across different hospitals. A knee replacement that costs around $23,170 in Baltimore might run $58,193 in New York. An emergency department visit that one facility charges $486 for might cost $3,549 at another hospital for the identical service.
The fundamental problem is that hospitals and doctors don’t have one price for their services. They have dozens, sometimes hundreds, of different prices for the exact same procedure depending on who’s paying. This bizarre system evolved because most healthcare in America isn’t a simple transaction between patient and provider—there’s a third party in the middle called an insurance company, and that changes everything.
The Fiction of Chargemaster Prices
A hospital chargemaster is essentially the hospital’s internal price list—a massive catalog that assigns a dollar amount to every service, supply, test, medication, and procedure the hospital can bill for, from an aspirin to a complex surgery. These listed prices are usually very high and are not what most patients actually pay; instead, the chargemaster functions as a starting point for negotiations with insurers and government programs like Medicare and Medicaid, which typically pay much lower, pre-set rates. What an individual patient ultimately pays depends on several factors layered on top of the chargemaster price. Think of them like the manufacturer’s suggested retail price on a car: technically real, but nobody pays them.
A hospital might list an MRI at $3,000 or a blood test at $500. But then insurance companies come in. They represent thousands or millions of potential patients, which gives them serious bargaining power. They negotiate with hospitals along these lines: “We’ll send you lots of patients, but only if you give us a discount.” So, the hospital agrees to accept much less—maybe they’ll take $1,200 for that $3,000 MRI or $150 for the blood test. This discounted amount is called the “negotiated rate,” and it’s what the insurance company will really pay.
Here’s where it gets messy: every insurance company negotiates its own rates with every hospital. Blue Cross might negotiate one price, Aetna a different price, UnitedHealthcare yet another. The same exact MRI at the same hospital might be $1,200 for one insurer’s customers and $1,800 for another’s. And these negotiated rates have traditionally been kept secret—treated like confidential business information that gives each party a competitive advantage.
The Write-Off Game
What happens to that difference between the chargemaster price and the negotiated rate? The hospital “writes it off.” That’s accounting language for “we accept that we’re not getting paid this money, and we’re taking it off the books.” If the hospital charged $3,000 but agreed to accept $1,200, they write off $1,800. This isn’t lost money in the normal sense—they never expected to collect it in the first place. The chargemaster prices are inflated specifically because everyone knows discounts are coming. Some hospitals now post “discounted cash prices” that are often far below chargemaster and sometimes even below some negotiated rates. These are sometimes, though not always, offered to uninsured patients, generally referred to as self-pay. There can be a catch—some hospitals require lump-sum payment of the total bill to qualify for the lower price.
According to the American Hospital Association, U.S. hospitals collectively plan to write off approximately $760 billion in billed charges in 2025 across all categories of write-offs. That’s not a typo—$760 billion. These write-offs happen in several different situations. The most common are contractual write-offs, where the provider has agreed to accept less than their list price from insurance companies.
Hospitals have far more write-offs than just contractual. They also write off money for charity care—treating patients who can’t afford to pay anything, and they write off bad debt when patients could pay but don’t. They write off small balances that aren’t worth the administrative cost of collection, and they write off amounts related to various billing errors, denied claims, and coverage disputes. Healthcare providers typically adjust about 10 to 12 percent of their gross revenue due to these various write-offs and claim adjustments.
Why Such Wild Variation?
Even with all these negotiated discounts built into the system, the prices still vary enormously. A 2024 study from the Baker Institute found that for emergency department visits, the price charged by hospitals in the top 10% can be three to seven times higher than the hospitals in the bottom 10% for the identical procedure. Research published in Health Affairs Scholar in early 2025 found that even after adjusting for differences between insurers and procedures, the top 25% of prices across all states is 48 percent higher than the bottom 25% of prices for inpatient services.
Several factors drive this variation. Hospitals in areas with less competition can charge more because insurers have fewer alternatives for negotiation. Prestigious hospitals can demand higher rates because insurers want them in their networks to attract customers. Some insurance companies have more bargaining power than others based on their market share. There’s no central authority setting prices—it’s all private negotiations, hospital by hospital, insurer by insurer, procedure by procedure.
For patients, this creates a nightmare scenario. Even if you have insurance, you usually have no idea what you’ll pay until after you’ve received care. Your out-of-pocket costs depend on your deductible (the amount you pay before insurance kicks in), your copay or coinsurance (your share after insurance starts paying), and whether the negotiated rate between your specific insurance and that specific hospital is high or low. Two people with different insurance plans getting the same procedure at the same hospital on the same day can end up with drastically different bills.
Research using new transparency data confirms this isn’t just anecdotal. A study from early 2025 found that for something as routine as a common office visit, mean prices ranged from $82 with Aetna to $115 with UnitedHealth. Within individual insurance companies, the price of the top 25% of office visits was 20 to 50 percent higher than the bottom 25%, meaning even within one insurer’s network, where you go or where you live makes a huge difference.
The Government Steps In
The federal government finally said “enough” and started requiring transparency. Since 2021, hospitals must post their prices online, including what they’ve negotiated with each insurance company. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) strengthened these requirements in 2024, mandating standardized formats and increasing enforcement. Health insurance plans face similar requirements to disclose their negotiated rates.
The theory was straightforward: if patients could see prices ahead of time, they could shop around, which would force prices down through competition. CMS estimated this could save as much as $80 billion by 2025. The idea seemed sound—transparency works in other markets, so why not healthcare?
In practice, it’s been messy. A Government Accountability Office (GAO) report from October 2024 found that while hospitals are posting data, stakeholders like health plans and employers have raised serious concerns about data quality. They’ve encountered inconsistent file formats, extremely complex pricing structures, and data that appears to be incomplete or possibly inaccurate. Even when hospitals post the required information, it’s often so convoluted that comparing prices across facilities becomes nearly impossible for average consumers.
An Office of Inspector General report from November 2024 found that not all selected hospitals were complying with the transparency requirements in the first place. And CMS still doesn’t have robust mechanisms to verify whether the data being posted is accurate and complete. The GAO recommended that CMS assess whether hospital pricing data are sufficiently complete and accurate to be usable, and to assess if additional enforcement if needed.
Imagine trying to comparison shop when one store lists prices in dollars, another in euros, and a third uses a proprietary currency they invented. That’s roughly where we are with healthcare price data—technically available, but practically unusable for most people trying to make informed decisions.
The Trump administration in 2025 signed a new executive order aimed at strengthening enforcement of price transparency rules and directing agencies to standardize and make hospital and insurer pricing information more accessible; this action built on rather than reduced the earlier requirements. Hopefully this will improve the ability of patients to access real costs, but it is my opinion that the industry will continue to resist full and open compliance.
The Limits of Shopping for Healthcare
There’s also a deeper philosophical problem: for healthcare to work like a normal market where price transparency drives competition, patients would need to be able to shop around based on price. That could work for scheduled procedures like knee replacements, colonoscopies, or elective surgeries. You have time to research, compare, and choose.
But it doesn’t work at all when you’re having a heart attack, or your child breaks their arm. You go to the nearest hospital, period. You’re not calling around asking about prices while someone’s having a medical emergency. Even for non-emergencies, choosing based on price assumes equal quality across providers, which isn’t always true and is even harder to assess than price itself.
A study on price transparency tools found mixed results on whether they truly reduce spending. Some research shows modest savings when people use price comparison tools for shoppable services like imaging and lab work. But utilization of these tools remains low, and for many healthcare encounters, price shopping simply isn’t practical or appropriate.
Who Really Knows?
So, who truly understands what things cost in this system? Hospital administrators know what different insurers pay them for specific procedures, but that knowledge is limited to their facility. They don’t necessarily know what other hospitals charge. Insurance company executives know what they’ve negotiated with various hospitals in their network, but they haven’t historically shared meaningful price information with their customers in advance. And they don’t know what their competitors have negotiated.
Patients, caught in the middle, often find out their costs only when they receive a bill weeks after treatment. By that point, the care has been delivered, and the financial damage is done. Recent surveys suggest that surprise medical bills remain a significant problem, with many patients receiving unexpected charges from out-of-network providers they didn’t choose or even know were involved in their care.
The people who are starting to get a comprehensive view are researchers and policymakers analyzing the newly available transparency data. Studies published in 2024 and 2025 using these data have given us unprecedented visibility into pricing patterns and variation. But this is aggregate, statistical knowledge—it helps us understand the system but doesn’t necessarily help individual patients figure out what they’ll pay for a specific procedure.
Where We Stand
The transparency regulations represent a genuine attempt to inject some market discipline into healthcare pricing. Making negotiated rates public breaks down the information asymmetry that has allowed prices to vary so wildly. In theory, if patients and employers can see that Hospital A charges twice what Hospital B does for the same procedure, competitive pressure should push prices toward the lower end.
There’s some early evidence this might be working. A study of children’s hospitals found that price variation for common imaging procedures decreased by about 19 percent between 2023 and 2024, though overall prices continued rising. Whether this trend will continue and expand to other types of facilities remains to be seen. I am concerned that rather than lowering overall prices it may cause hospitals at the lower end to raise their prices closer to those at the higher end.
Significant obstacles remain. The data quality issues need resolution before the information becomes truly usable. Many patients lack either the time, expertise, or practical ability to shop based on price. And the fundamental structure of American healthcare—with its complex interplay of providers, insurers, pharmacy benefit managers, and government programs—means that even perfect price transparency won’t create a simple, straightforward market.
So, to return to the original question: does anyone truly know the cost of medical care in the United States? In an aggregate sense, researchers and policymakers are starting to understand the patterns thanks to transparency requirements. The data are revealing just how variable and opaque pricing has been. But as a practical matter for individual patients trying to figure out what they’ll pay for needed care, not really. The information is becoming available but remains largely inaccessible or incomprehensible for ordinary people trying to make informed healthcare decisions.
The $760 billion in annual write-offs tells you everything you need to know: the posted prices are largely fictional, the negotiated prices vary wildly, and the system has evolved to be so complex that even the people operating within it struggle to understand the full picture. We’re making progress toward transparency, but we’re a long way from a healthcare system where patients can confidently get the answer to the simple question: “How much will this cost?”
A closing thought: All of this could be solved by development of a single-payer healthcare system such as I proposed in my previous post America’s Healthcare Paradox: Why We Pay Double and Get Less.